The Iran Contract is Dead Already

You may notice that the headline say "contract", not "deal". I hate the word "deal", it sounds a bit like a shady car dealership to me, and "contract" makes it more clear that there is a legally binding (in theory) document that had been written after careful negotiations, and there was no rip-off as in so many "deals" there is.

Anyway, after the US illegally backing out and illegally and very rudely telling the EU that they can choose between wither dealing with Iran of the US, it seems the EU, and in particular Germany have not grasped the situation yet.

They tell Iran in all seriousness that the EU will honor the contract and ask Iran to do the same. Are they blind, deaf, brain-dead, or all of the above?

The trade between the EU and Iran is but a small fraction (about 3%) of the volume they trade with the US. Do they seriously think that companies will happily give up 500 billion in trade in favor of the 15 billion they trade with Iran?

Companies are neither political, nor are they empathic, they are run for the sole purpose of makin profits, and they will simply look for the bigger chunk.

I am not sure what the EU are playing at here. They can of course politically honor the contract, but their industry will nevertheless cease operations with Iran - bottom-line there it will make no difference whether the EU breaks the contract as well, and imposes new sanctions.

Of course, by politically staying in the contract, they can (and do) urge Iran, to also honor its commitments.

Albeit, as mentioned above, for Iran it does not really matter what the EU does - they will just loose their imports and exports, including those from/to the EU.

Can you honestly expect Iran to stay with the contract, when all the benefits are gone anyway?

Israel, Saudi Arabia, and last bit not least the US are tightening the military screws as well. What other realistic choice does Iran have that to build weapons to defend itself, when all benefits of not doing so have already been taken away?

Of course it is this very reaction the Trump administration is counting on. In this event they will join forces with Israel and Saudi Arabia and declare war on Iran, which is what they have been planning all along, such as Trump's "security advisor" John Bolton, who publicly said hat he wants to see a "regime change" in Iran in 2018.

Despite this very obvious plot, I am afraid that what I just outlined above is exactly what is going to happen. Iran is already caught in a "mouse trap" an cannot choose its actions freely any longer.

I don't care for governments and politics at all, least of all for the Iranian*, but this prospect really makes me sad for a beautiful country and its innocent and likeable inhabitants.


*: maybe one exception: the Israeli government